The ledger
84 claims
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
- JL-048said 20 July 2026Pending20 July 2027
- JL-023said 18 July 2026If Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.
Our assessment Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
Condition never happened18 July 2031 - JL-022said 11 July 2026In a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Aug 2026 - JL-042said 12 May 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-054said 28 Apr 2026Within the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.
Our assessment After 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-065said 21 Apr 2026Pending21 Apr 2027
- JL-087said 9 Apr 2026Pending7 Nov 2028
- JL-088said 9 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-075said 7 Apr 2026If the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 June 2026 - JL-077said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Apr 2027
- JL-076said 7 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-061said 7 Apr 2026If the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-045said 7 Apr 2026Trump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.
Our assessment Trump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-029said 7 Apr 2026The United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.
Our assessment Trump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-073said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Oct 2026
- JL-074said 7 Apr 2026If Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-036said 2 Apr 2026If the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue15 Apr 2026 - JL-080said 26 Mar 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-082said 26 Mar 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-020said 26 Mar 2026The United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).
Our assessment No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-031said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2036
- JL-032said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2046
- JL-028said 19 Mar 2026Saudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.
Our assessment Iranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-070said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-071said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2028
- JL-072said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-037said 5 Mar 2026Within the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.
Our assessment Three pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-035said 3 Mar 2026The US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.
Our assessment The war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-040said 3 Mar 2026The global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.
Our assessment The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-034said 3 Mar 2026Bahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.
Our assessment Iranian missiles and drones struck US Naval Forces Central Command in Manama on 28 February 2026, the first day of the war, at a base hosting about 8,300 sailors.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-046said 3 Mar 2026Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.
Our assessment Iran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-078said 3 Mar 2026The US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue3 June 2026 - JL-079said 3 Mar 2026Pending3 Mar 2027
- JL-033said 15 Jan 2026Pending15 Jan 2051
- JL-081said 15 Jan 2026Pending31 Dec 2050
- JL-086said 18 Dec 2025Pending18 Dec 2027
- JL-039said 18 Dec 2025The United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.
Our assessment The US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-024said 29 Aug 2025Pending1 Jan 2070
- JL-047said 22 Aug 2025In the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.
Our assessment V-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-064said 18 July 2025Israel will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.
Our assessment The June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-016said 18 July 2025The Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.
Our assessment No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-025said 18 July 2025China and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.
Our assessment There was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-062said 25 June 2025Despite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.
Our assessment US and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-063said 25 June 2025Netanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.
Our assessment Israel carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-060said 18 June 2025US air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-058said 18 June 2025The United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.
Our assessment The United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-059said 18 June 2025The US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-021said 18 June 2025China will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.
Our assessment China sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-055said 18 June 2025America and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.
Our assessment No US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-056said 18 June 2025Nuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.
Our assessment No nuclear weapon was used in the US-Israel-Iran war; the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-038said 18 June 2025The US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.
Our assessment The government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-057said 18 June 2025The American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.
Our assessment A ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-041said 18 Feb 2025The United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.
Our assessment Trump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-027said 13 June 2024Marine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.
Our assessment National Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-085said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-083said 7 June 2024Pending30 Nov 2028
- JL-084said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-026said 7 June 2024The November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.
Our assessment Turnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-043said 5 June 2024US college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.
Our assessment Campus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-069said 31 May 2024Pending31 May 2044
- JL-053said 29 May 2024A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-067said 24 May 2024Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.
Our assessment Ali Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-051said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Dec 2024 - JL-068said 24 May 2024With Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.
Our assessment Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-052said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue30 June 2024 - JL-066said 22 May 2024Pending20 Jan 2029
- JL-015said 17 May 2024A majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.
Our assessment Four independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-017said 17 May 2024Voter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.
Our assessment Turnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-018said 17 May 2024Trump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.
Our assessment Trump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-019said 17 May 2024Trump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.
Our assessment Trump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-002said 8 May 2024If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
Our assessment Israel opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-001said 8 May 2024Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Settled by Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
Pending8 May 2034 - JL-008said 24 Apr 2024Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Our assessment Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
Partial29 July 2026 - JL-010said 24 Apr 2024If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Our assessment The European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-005said 24 Apr 2024As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
Our assessment The two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-014said 24 Apr 2024Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Settled by Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
Pending24 Apr 2034 - JL-012said 24 Apr 2024In a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
Our assessment China kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-007said 24 Apr 2024Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
Settled by Settled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-006said 24 Apr 2024Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Settled by Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-013said 24 Apr 2024In a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.
Our assessment Russia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-004said 24 Apr 2024A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
Our assessment The premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-011said 24 Apr 2024If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
Our assessment Trump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-009said 24 Apr 2024If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
Our assessment In June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026