JL-015 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
A majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 17 May 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“woman will still consistently vote Democratic this year”
Our assessment
Our assessment: a majority of women voters chose the Democratic ticket again in November 2024, and four independent measurement systems agree. Edison Research for the National Election Pool put women at 45 percent Trump, so about 53 percent Harris. AP VoteCast put women at 46 percent Trump, 54 percent Harris. The Pew Research Center validated voter study, published 26 June 2025 with turnout matched against three commercial voter files, put women at 54 percent Harris and 46 percent Trump. The Catalist voter file analysis, published 19 May 2025, put women at 55 percent Democratic. The word again also holds: Pew and Catalist both put women at 56 percent for Biden in 2020, so 2024 repeated the pattern at a slightly lower level. The counterweight belongs in the record: 53 percent of white women backed Trump in both Edison and VoteCast, and more than six in ten non-college white women did. The claim as worded is about women voters overall, and the aggregate majority is carried by Black women at about nine in ten Democratic and Latinas at about six in ten.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 1
- reviewed batch, 3 August 2026Pending changed to Confirmed
Our assessment: a majority of women voters chose the Democratic ticket again in November 2024, and four independent measurement systems agree. Edison Research for the National Election Pool put women at 45 percent Trump, so about 53 percent Harris. AP VoteCast put women at 46 percent Trump, 54 percent Harris. The Pew Research Center validated voter study, published 26 June 2025 with turnout matched against three commercial voter files, put women at 54 percent Harris and 46 percent Trump. The Catalist voter file analysis, published 19 May 2025, put women at 55 percent Democratic. The word again also holds: Pew and Catalist both put women at 56 percent for Biden in 2020, so 2024 repeated the pattern at a slightly lower level. The counterweight belongs in the record: 53 percent of white women backed Trump in both Edison and VoteCast, and more than six in ten non-college white women did. The claim as worded is about women voters overall, and the aggregate majority is carried by Black women at about nine in ten Democratic and Latinas at about six in ten.