JL-027 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
Marine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 13 June 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is wrong.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“it's possible in 3 months Time Mary leen's party will run and govern France”
Our assessment
National Rally and its allies finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, behind the New Popular Front's 195 and Ensemble's 162, and by the 14 September deadline France was run by Michel Barnier of Les Republicains, whose cabinet contained no RN ministers. The call was directionally right that RN would surge, since it topped the first round with close to 34 percent, but wrong that it would govern.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 1
- reviewed batch, 3 August 2026Pending changed to Wrong
National Rally and its allies finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, behind the New Popular Front's 195 and Ensemble's 162, and by the 14 September deadline France was run by Michel Barnier of Les Republicains, whose cabinet contained no RN ministers. The call was directionally right that RN would surge, since it topped the first round with close to 34 percent, but wrong that it would govern.