If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.

Verdict history 2

1. 29 July 2026 · Issued by the editor
   Pending → changed to Confirmed

   Our assessment: Condition met: Trump won the 2024 election. Consequent: Israel opened the 12-day war on 13 June 2025, with Trump ordering US strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June. Then on 28 February 2026, about 22 months after the prediction, the US and Israel launched a full-scale war after Tehran rejected US demands to end enrichment; the Trump administration authorized the operation and Trump set the war aims. That matches "around two years from April 2024" closely. As of 23 Jul 2026: US bombing of Iran is in its 12th consecutive night, with Iranian retaliation on Gulf states and a Houthi blockade of Saudi shipping.

   • Evidence source: cfr.org (opens in a new tab)
   • Evidence source: cbsnews.com (opens in a new tab)
   • Evidence source: pbs.org (opens in a new tab)
   • Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
2. 3 Aug 2026 · Issued by the editor
   Confirmed → changed to Confirmed

   Our assessment: condition met. Trump won the 2024 election. Consequent: Israel opened the 12-day war on 13 June 2025, and Trump ordered American strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June 2025. On 28 February 2026 the United States and Israel launched a full-scale campaign after Tehran rejected American demands to end enrichment. Trump announced the operation and set its aims, and a senior administration official called Iran's conventional missile capability an intolerable risk. The Congressional Research Service names the campaign Operation Epic Fury and dates its launch to 28 February 2026, which is a primary record of both the initiation and the timing. April 2024 to 28 February 2026 is 22 months, which fits "around two years from April 2024". As of 3 August 2026 the conflict continues, with the Council on Foreign Relations conflict tracker recording American bombing halted on 27 July 2026 after 13 consecutive nights. Corrected 3 August 2026: a war-update citation that spoke to neither initiation nor timing replaced with the Congressional Research Service record that dates the launch, because every source on a page should carry a sentence on it.

   • Evidence source: cfr.org (opens in a new tab)
   • Evidence source: cbsnews.com (opens in a new tab)
   • Evidence source: pbs.org (opens in a new tab)
   • Evidence source: congress.gov (opens in a new tab)