The ledger, filtered
18 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
14 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-086said 18 Dec 2025Pending18 Dec 2027
- JL-039said 18 Dec 2025The United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.
Our assessment The US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-024said 29 Aug 2025Pending1 Jan 2070
- JL-047said 22 Aug 2025In the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.
Our assessment V-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-064said 18 July 2025Israel will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.
Our assessment The June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-016said 18 July 2025The Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.
Our assessment No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-025said 18 July 2025China and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.
Our assessment There was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-062said 25 June 2025Despite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.
Our assessment US and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-063said 25 June 2025Netanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.
Our assessment Israel carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-060said 18 June 2025US air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-058said 18 June 2025The United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.
Our assessment The United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-059said 18 June 2025The US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-021said 18 June 2025China will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.
Our assessment China sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-055said 18 June 2025America and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.
Our assessment No US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-056said 18 June 2025Nuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.
Our assessment No nuclear weapon was used in the US-Israel-Iran war; the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-038said 18 June 2025The US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.
Our assessment The government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-057said 18 June 2025The American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.
Our assessment A ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-041said 18 Feb 2025The United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.
Our assessment Trump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026