The ledger, filtered
35 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
10 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-048said 20 July 2026Pending20 July 2027
- JL-023said 18 July 2026If Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.
Our assessment Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
Condition never happened18 July 2031 - JL-022said 11 July 2026In a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Aug 2026 - JL-042said 12 May 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-054said 28 Apr 2026Within the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.
Our assessment After 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-065said 21 Apr 2026Pending21 Apr 2027
- JL-087said 9 Apr 2026Pending7 Nov 2028
- JL-088said 9 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-075said 7 Apr 2026If the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 June 2026 - JL-077said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Apr 2027
- JL-076said 7 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-061said 7 Apr 2026If the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-045said 7 Apr 2026Trump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.
Our assessment Trump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-029said 7 Apr 2026The United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.
Our assessment Trump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-073said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Oct 2026
- JL-074said 7 Apr 2026If Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-036said 2 Apr 2026If the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue15 Apr 2026 - JL-080said 26 Mar 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-082said 26 Mar 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-020said 26 Mar 2026The United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).
Our assessment No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-031said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2036
- JL-032said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2046
- JL-028said 19 Mar 2026Saudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.
Our assessment Iranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-070said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-071said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2028
- JL-072said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-037said 5 Mar 2026Within the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.
Our assessment Three pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-035said 3 Mar 2026The US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.
Our assessment The war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-040said 3 Mar 2026The global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.
Our assessment The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-034said 3 Mar 2026Bahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.
Our assessment Iranian missiles and drones struck US Naval Forces Central Command in Manama on 28 February 2026, the first day of the war, at a base hosting about 8,300 sailors.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-046said 3 Mar 2026Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.
Our assessment Iran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-078said 3 Mar 2026The US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue3 June 2026 - JL-079said 3 Mar 2026Pending3 Mar 2027
- JL-033said 15 Jan 2026Pending15 Jan 2051
- JL-081said 15 Jan 2026Pending31 Dec 2050