JL-005 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 24 April 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is partial.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“the population will start to coales and fight against”
Our assessment
Our assessment: the condition holds. Israeli and American attacks continued through the June 2025 twelve-day war, the 2026 war, and strikes into July 2026. The consequent is partly borne out, and the strongest source on this page cuts against the reading we published, so we set it out in full. The University of Maryland study of Iranian opinion taken soon after the twelve-day war, fielded by telephone in late September and early October 2025 with a sample of 1,000, does record that over four in five Iranians saw the United States as causal in starting the war. It also records what we left out: notable signs of a rally-round-the-flag effect, attitudes to the government no more negative after the war than before it, 79 percent preferring a punitive response and the highest reading in six years, 81 percent calling the missile programme very important and a record over seven years, and a first slim majority for developing atomic bombs. On that instrument the predicted unity is visible. Against it, anti-regime protests began in December 2025, an online survey of more than 30,000 Iranians fielded in September 2025 and reported in January 2026 found 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and the Atlantic Council dispatch of 8 April 2026 finds anger split between Tehran, Washington and Netanyahu. One figure we had wrong: the slogan "our enemy is right here" drew 73 percent support when it was tested in 2021, and we presented it as January 2026 polling. The two instruments disagree, and they disagree partly by construction, since a telephone survey inside Iran and an opt-in online panel reach different people. Partial stands because unity against the Americans is measurable in one instrument and absent in the other, not because the question is settled. As of 3 August 2026 we see no united popular front in the sources on this page. Corrected 3 August 2026: the dead University of Maryland link replaced with the report itself, the 73 percent figure returned to its 2021 fieldwork, the survey's rally-round-the-flag findings added, and an open-contributor aggregator dropped, because the note had used its strongest source only for the part that suited our reading.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 2
- Issued by the editorPending changed to Partial
Our assessment: The condition holds; Israeli and US attacks continued through the June 2025 twelve-day war, the 2026 war, and July 2026 strikes. The consequent is partly borne out. A University of Maryland survey after the 2025 war found four in five Iranians blamed the US for starting it, and 2026 civilian casualties deepened anger at Washington. But unity never formed: January 2026 surveys found 73 percent saying "our enemy is right here," mass anti-regime protests began in December 2025, and July 2026 reporting shows a fragmented, survival-focused public. As of 23 Jul 2026: anger targets both Washington and the regime; no united popular front has formed.
- Issued by the editorPartial changed to Partial
Our assessment: the condition holds. Israeli and American attacks continued through the June 2025 twelve-day war, the 2026 war, and strikes into July 2026. The consequent is partly borne out, and the strongest source on this page cuts against the reading we published, so we set it out in full. The University of Maryland study of Iranian opinion taken soon after the twelve-day war, fielded by telephone in late September and early October 2025 with a sample of 1,000, does record that over four in five Iranians saw the United States as causal in starting the war. It also records what we left out: notable signs of a rally-round-the-flag effect, attitudes to the government no more negative after the war than before it, 79 percent preferring a punitive response and the highest reading in six years, 81 percent calling the missile programme very important and a record over seven years, and a first slim majority for developing atomic bombs. On that instrument the predicted unity is visible. Against it, anti-regime protests began in December 2025, an online survey of more than 30,000 Iranians fielded in September 2025 and reported in January 2026 found 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and the Atlantic Council dispatch of 8 April 2026 finds anger split between Tehran, Washington and Netanyahu. One figure we had wrong: the slogan "our enemy is right here" drew 73 percent support when it was tested in 2021, and we presented it as January 2026 polling. The two instruments disagree, and they disagree partly by construction, since a telephone survey inside Iran and an opt-in online panel reach different people. Partial stands because unity against the Americans is measurable in one instrument and absent in the other, not because the question is settled. As of 3 August 2026 we see no united popular front in the sources on this page. Corrected 3 August 2026: the dead University of Maryland link replaced with the report itself, the 73 percent figure returned to its 2021 fieldwork, the survey's rally-round-the-flag findings added, and an open-contributor aggregator dropped, because the note had used its strongest source only for the part that suited our reading.