The ledger, filtered

2 claims of 84

0/20Nothing scored yet

0Confirmed

0Partial

0Wrong

1Still open

Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

0 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.

StatusAll (84)Pending (40)Confirmed (26)Partial (7)Wrong (10)Unverifiable (0)Superseded (0)

ThemeAll AI Bubble and Nationalisation Argentina Ascendancy Empire in Decline: US Institutions Forever War: Energy Hard Money and Debasement Rearmament and War Economy

YearAll 2026 2025 2024

JL-048said 20 July 2026
Argentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.
Prof Jiang Xueqin 20:40 watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 20 July 2027Argentina AscendancyEmpire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending20 July 2027
JL-023said 18 July 2026
If Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.
Our assessment Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
Prof Jiang Xueqin 28:17 watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 July 2031Argentina Ascendancy
Condition never happened18 July 2031

Still reading. 1 of these are unresolved and will be scored when their evidence is in.How a claim is scored