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TimestampedLedger live84 on the record43 scored

JL-060 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

US air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.

Overduedue 31 December 2025

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 June 2025. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 31 December 2025.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

I'm not I'm not um convinced that um air strikes will do any real lasting damage to the infrastructure of Iran
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 5:45 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Not yet assessed

Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim. Scoring him on a clock he did not start is not a fair test, so the verdict is withdrawn rather than left standing. The claim itself is unchanged and remains open.

Expected to be judgeable by

We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.

Verdict history 2

  1. Issued automatically by staged-research
    Pending changed to Wrong

    Five months after the strikes the Institute for Science and International Security found Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan and the Karaj centrifuge plant still destroyed and unrepaired as of November 2025, with Iran unable to enrich in any significant manner and Iranian officials themselves saying enrichment had stopped. The missile side recovered better, with roughly 2,000 heavy missiles retained and large-scale production resuming about six months on, so the claim holds for missiles and fails on the nuclear infrastructure the strikes actually targeted.

  2. Issued by the editor
    Wrong changed to Pending

    Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim. Scoring him on a clock he did not start is not a fair test, so the verdict is withdrawn rather than left standing. The claim itself is unchanged and remains open.