JL-035 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
The US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 3 March 2026. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“we can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly also for many years”
Our assessment
The war began on 28 February 2026 and was still generating strikes on 6 June, when Iran said US attacks on radar and coastal sites at Sirik and Qeshm Island violated the ceasefire, more than 13 weeks after the start. The many-weeks threshold was cleared well before the 2 June deadline, while the many-years branch remains unsettled.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 1
- reviewed batch, 3 August 2026Pending changed to Confirmed
The war began on 28 February 2026 and was still generating strikes on 6 June, when Iran said US attacks on radar and coastal sites at Sirik and Qeshm Island violated the ceasefire, more than 13 weeks after the start. The many-weeks threshold was cleared well before the 2 June deadline, while the many-years branch remains unsettled.