The ledger, filtered
6 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
6 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-054said 28 Apr 2026Within the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.
Our assessment After 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-029said 7 Apr 2026The United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.
Our assessment Trump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-028said 19 Mar 2026Saudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.
Our assessment Iranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-035said 3 Mar 2026The US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.
Our assessment The war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-040said 3 Mar 2026The global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.
Our assessment The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-046said 3 Mar 2026Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.
Our assessment Iran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026