Theme
Empire in Decline: US Institutions
The thesis that US institutional capacity erodes, with knock-on effects for global order.
13 of 20 resolved. A success rate for a single theme appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-048said 20 July 2026Pending20 July 2027
- JL-022said 11 July 2026In a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Aug 2026 - JL-054said 28 Apr 2026Within the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.
Our assessment After 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-077said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Apr 2027
- JL-029said 7 Apr 2026The United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.
Our assessment Trump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-031said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2036
- JL-032said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2046
- JL-071said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2028
- JL-072said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-046said 3 Mar 2026Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.
Our assessment Iran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-033said 15 Jan 2026Pending15 Jan 2051
- JL-086said 18 Dec 2025Pending18 Dec 2027
- JL-039said 18 Dec 2025The United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.
Our assessment The US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-024said 29 Aug 2025Pending1 Jan 2070
- JL-047said 22 Aug 2025In the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.
Our assessment V-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-055said 18 June 2025America and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.
Our assessment No US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-038said 18 June 2025The US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.
Our assessment The government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-041said 18 Feb 2025The United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.
Our assessment Trump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-083said 7 June 2024Pending30 Nov 2028
- JL-026said 7 June 2024The November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.
Our assessment Turnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-043said 5 June 2024US college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.
Our assessment Campus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-069said 31 May 2024Pending31 May 2044
- JL-053said 29 May 2024A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-001said 8 May 2024Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Settled by Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
Pending8 May 2034 - JL-008said 24 Apr 2024Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Our assessment Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
Partial29 July 2026 - JL-010said 24 Apr 2024If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Our assessment The European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-014said 24 Apr 2024Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Settled by Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
Pending24 Apr 2034