The ledger, filtered
10 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
5 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-083said 7 June 2024Pending30 Nov 2028
- JL-026said 7 June 2024The November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.
Our assessment Turnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-043said 5 June 2024US college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.
Our assessment Campus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-069said 31 May 2024Pending31 May 2044
- JL-053said 29 May 2024A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-001said 8 May 2024Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Settled by Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
Pending8 May 2034 - JL-008said 24 Apr 2024Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Our assessment Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
Partial29 July 2026 - JL-010said 24 Apr 2024If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Our assessment The European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-014said 24 Apr 2024Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Settled by Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
Pending24 Apr 2034