The ledger, filtered
5 claims of 84
0/20Nothing scored yet
0Confirmed
0Partial
0Wrong
5Still open
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
0 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
StatusStatus: All (84)Status: Pending (40)Status: Confirmed (26)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (10)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
- JL-083said 7 June 2024Pending30 Nov 2028
- JL-069said 31 May 2024Pending31 May 2044
- JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-001said 8 May 2024Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Settled by Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
Pending8 May 2034 - JL-014said 24 Apr 2024Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Settled by Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
Pending24 Apr 2034
Still reading. 5 of these are unresolved and will be scored when their evidence is in.How a claim is scored