The ledger, filtered
2 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
2 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-008said 24 Apr 2024Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Our assessment Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
Partial29 July 2026 - JL-010said 24 Apr 2024If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Our assessment The European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
Partial3 Aug 2026