The ledger, filtered
1 claim of 84
1/20Scored, rate held back
0Confirmed
0Partial
1Wrong
0Still open
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
1 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
StatusStatus: All (84)Status: Pending (40)Status: Confirmed (26)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (10)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
- JL-020said 26 Mar 2026The United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).
Our assessment No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
Wrong3 Aug 2026
Still reading. 0 of these are unresolved and will be scored when their evidence is in.How a claim is scored