The ledger, filtered
1 claim of 84
1/20Scored, rate held back
0Confirmed
1Partial
0Wrong
0Still open
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
1 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
StatusStatus: All (84)Status: Pending (40)Status: Confirmed (26)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (10)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
- JL-037said 5 Mar 2026Within the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.
Our assessment Three pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
Partial3 Aug 2026
Still reading. 0 of these are unresolved and will be scored when their evidence is in.How a claim is scored